2020 · Week 13

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mike Glennon

24·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10.5

Total

51

Model margin

+8.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapVikings
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.089
  • 42.0%Success rate49.1%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.025
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -0.40CPOE+4.45
  • 40.6%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.30
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–1 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10MIN @ JAX12–7MIN
2016 · W14MIN @ JAX25–16MIN
2012 · W1JAX @ MIN23–26MIN
2008 · W12MIN @ JAX30–12MIN
2004 · W12JAX @ MIN16–27MIN
2001 · W15JAX @ MIN33–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–MIN
JAXQ1 15:00575Touchdown6–0
MINQ1 12:3347Punt6–0
JAXQ1 11:11966Field goal9–0
MINQ1 6:0455Punt9–0
JAXQ1 2:56421Punt9–0
MINQ1 0:2238Punt9–0
JAXQ2 14:061259Turnover9–0
MINQ2 7:401078Touchdown9–6
JAXQ2 2:5039Punt9–6
MINQ2 1:4556Punt9–6
JAXQ2 0:4939Punt9–6
MINQ2 0:18311End of half9–6
MINQ3 15:0010Opp touchdown16–6
MINQ3 14:50985Touchdown16–13
JAXQ3 11:08715Punt16–13
MINQ3 7:171057Touchdown16–19
JAXQ3 3:2737Turnover16–19
MINQ3 2:24633Turnover16–19
JAXQ4 14:553-2Safety16–21
MINQ4 14:11622Punt16–21
JAXQ4 10:3238Punt16–21
MINQ4 9:023-1Punt16–21
JAXQ4 7:01326Turnover16–21
MINQ4 5:29414Field goal16–24
JAXQ4 3:501080Touchdown24–24
MINQ4 1:08742Missed field goal24–24
JAXQ4 0:13115Missed field goal24–24
MINOT43Punt24–24
JAXOT32Turnover24–24
MINOT1150Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon28/4228012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson18784.31
Laviska Shenault Jr.23015.00
Mike Glennon393.00
Dare Ogunbowale273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Collin Johnson46660
Tyler Eifert66450
James O'Shaughnessy46410
DJ Chark27410
Laviska Shenault Jr.33381
James Robinson66300
Chris Conley22120
Keelan Cole1270
Eric Saubert0100
Dare Ogunbowale0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins28/4330531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook321203.80
Kirk Cousins3124.00
Ameer Abdullah2115.50
Justin Jefferson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9121211
Adam Thielen811751
Dalvin Cook69590
Ameer Abdullah11180
Tyler Conklin11100
Chad Beebe23100
Kyle Rudolph0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.09