Closing spread
MIN -10.5
Total
51
Model margin
+8.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.089
- 42.0%Success rate49.1%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.025
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.4%
- -0.40CPOE+4.45
- 40.6%Third-down rate41.2%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 1.74Points / drive2.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 28/42 | 280 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 28/43 | 305 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 32 | 120 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 12 | 121 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 75 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.09