2012 · Week 1

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

23·26

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+4.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapVikings
  • -0.115EPA / play+0.011
  • 40.0%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.013
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -5.09CPOE-2.66
  • 28.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.91
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–1 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10MIN @ JAX12–7MIN
2020 · W13JAX @ MIN24–27MIN
2016 · W14MIN @ JAX25–16MIN
2008 · W12MIN @ JAX30–12MIN
2004 · W12JAX @ MIN16–27MIN
2001 · W15JAX @ MIN33–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–MIN
MINQ1 15:00424Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:141872Field goal3–0
MINQ1 2:5234Punt3–0
JAXQ1 1:16414Punt3–0
MINQ2 14:3836Punt3–0
JAXQ2 12:301283Touchdown9–0
MINQ2 5:21624Punt9–0
JAXQ2 2:5432Punt9–0
MINQ2 2:28759Touchdown9–7
JAXQ2 0:4100End of half9–7
JAXQ3 15:00629Turnover9–7
MINQ3 11:36444Touchdown9–14
JAXQ3 9:42625Punt9–14
MINQ3 6:121-4Turnover9–14
JAXQ3 6:0538Field goal12–14
MINQ3 4:401075Field goal12–17
JAXQ4 14:09929Field goal15–17
MINQ4 9:35967Field goal15–20
JAXQ4 5:33610Punt15–20
MINQ4 1:5133Punt15–20
JAXQ4 1:18676Touchdown23–20
MINQ4 0:20232Field goal23–23
MINOT755Field goal23–26
JAXOT48Turnover on downs23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert23/3926020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew19774.10
Rashad Jennings8313.90
Blaine Gabbert561.20
Jalen Parmele100.00
Mike Thomas1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts47741
Laurent Robinson59660
Marcedes Lewis55521
Justin Blackmon36240
Maurice Jones-Drew35180
Rashad Jennings1190
Montell Owens1380
Mike Thomas0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder20/2727000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17844.92
Percy Harvin5204.00
Toby Gerhart6183.00
Christian Ponder111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin68840
Kyle Rudolph57670
Devin Aromashodu33610
Michael Jenkins35450
Toby Gerhart1180
Adrian Peterson1130
Matt Asiata1120
John Carlson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05