Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play+0.011
- 40.0%Success rate42.1%
- -0.106EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.013
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -5.09CPOE-2.66
- 28.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 0.96Points / drive1.91
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 23/39 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Justin Blackmon | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 20/27 | 270 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05