Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.004
- 40.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.18CPOE+3.08
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.7%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.65
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 14:47 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 14:40 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:19 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:49 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:57 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:00 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 12:29 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q2 8:51 | 11 | 52 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 2:40 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q2 2:26 | 6 | 38 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:46 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q3 12:34 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q3 11:45 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| JAX | Q3 7:43 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 5:27 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| JAX | Q4 13:59 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 23–10 |
| MIN | Q4 11:53 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 30–10 |
| JAX | Q4 6:55 | 13 | 63 | Turnover | 30–10 |
| MIN | Q4 3:58 | 4 | -4 | Safety | 30–12 |
| JAX | Q4 3:01 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 30–12 |
| MIN | Q4 1:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 12/20 | 120 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 27/45 | 317 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.34