2024 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

12·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.023
  • 46.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.00CPOE-0.88
  • 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.74
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–1 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W13JAX @ MIN24–27MIN
2016 · W14MIN @ JAX25–16MIN
2012 · W1JAX @ MIN23–26MIN
2008 · W12MIN @ JAX30–12MIN
2004 · W12JAX @ MIN16–27MIN
2001 · W15JAX @ MIN33–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:251153Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:56970Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 3:44445Turnover3–7
JAXQ1 1:2039Punt3–7
MINQ1 0:281776Turnover3–7
JAXQ2 5:24923Punt3–7
MINQ2 1:4238Punt3–7
JAXQ2 1:173-3End of half3–7
MINQ3 15:00752Turnover3–7
JAXQ3 12:10415Punt3–7
MINQ3 10:011577Field goal6–7
JAXQ3 1:4233Punt6–7
MINQ4 15:001568Field goal9–7
JAXQ4 7:142-3Turnover9–7
MINQ4 6:35414Field goal12–7
JAXQ4 4:2222Turnover12–7
MINQ4 3:3931Punt12–7
JAXQ4 2:42625Turnover12–7
MINQ4 1:5239End of half12–7

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/3824103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17885.20
Cam Akers13382.90
Sam Darnold7284.00
Ty Chandler4184.50
Jordan Addison144.00
Jalen Nailor1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson89720
Josh Oliver46520
Justin Jefferson59480
Jordan Addison25250
Aaron Jones23130
Trent Sherfield11110
Jalen Nailor13110
Cam Akers1190

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones14/2211102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne11444.00
Mac Jones581.61
Tank Bigsby242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram68400
Brenton Strange23250
Gabe Davis14190
Luke Farrell22160
Brian Thomas Jr.23120
Travis Etienne11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15