Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.023
- 46.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.00CPOE-0.88
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.09Points / drive1.74
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/38 | 241 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 14/22 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15