2016 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

25·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.060
  • 42.5%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.210
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +3.80CPOE-4.51
  • 38.4%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.52
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–1 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10MIN @ JAX12–7MIN
2020 · W13JAX @ MIN24–27MIN
2012 · W1JAX @ MIN23–26MIN
2008 · W12MIN @ JAX30–12MIN
2004 · W12JAX @ MIN16–27MIN
2001 · W15JAX @ MIN33–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–JAX
MINQ1 15:00450Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 12:203-2Punt3–0
MINQ1 10:28450Field goal6–0
JAXQ1 7:53722Punt6–0
MINQ1 3:1231Punt6–0
JAXQ1 1:07734Field goal6–3
MINQ2 13:07511Field goal9–3
JAXQ2 10:49641Field goal9–6
MINQ2 6:18974Turnover on downs9–6
JAXQ2 1:561065Field goal9–9
MINQ2 0:0900End of half9–9
JAXQ3 15:00852Missed field goal9–9
MINQ3 11:22841Field goal12–9
JAXQ3 8:291256Touchdown12–16
MINQ3 3:501060Touchdown18–16
JAXQ4 14:1335Punt18–16
MINQ4 12:401153Turnover18–16
JAXQ4 6:1930Punt18–16
MINQ4 5:041039Touchdown25–16
JAXQ4 2:13842Missed field goal25–16
MINQ4 0:1600End of half25–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford24/3429210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata11373.41
Jerick McKinnon14312.20
Sam Bradford4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen451010
Kyle Rudolph48601
Stefon Diggs35550
Jerick McKinnon66380
Cordarrelle Patterson34180
Matt Asiata22140
Charles D. Johnson1160
Rhett Ellison1200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles23/3725710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon17593.50
Blake Bortles3134.30
Corey Grant4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee581130
Bryan Walters44311
T.J. Yeldon79310
Neal Sterling35270
Shane Wynn13190
Ben Koyack22190
Allen Robinson13170
Arrelious Benn0100
Corey Grant0100
Alex Ellis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.93