Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.060
- 42.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.210
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- +3.80CPOE-4.51
- 38.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 1.65Points / drive1.52
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 24/34 | 292 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 101 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/37 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Shane Wynn | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.93