Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.023
- 39.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.45Points / drive1.31
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/20 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Chandler | 7/11 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/29 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 7 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 7 | 15 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.33