2001 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

14·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.062EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.3%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 42.1%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.31
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.060EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIA @ ATL34–10MIA
2021 · W7ATL @ MIA30–28ATL
2017 · W6MIA @ ATL20–17MIA
2013 · W3ATL @ MIA23–27MIA
2009 · W1MIA @ ATL7–19ATL
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIA
ATLQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:5710Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 11:46626Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:023-5Punt7–0
ATLQ1 7:28621Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ1 3:253-3Punt7–0
ATLQ1 1:4820Opp touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 0:5900Opp touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 0:59714Punt7–7
MIAQ2 12:1331Punt7–7
ATLQ2 11:0636Punt7–7
MIAQ2 8:57415Punt7–7
ATLQ2 7:17721Punt7–7
MIAQ2 4:27967Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 1:02216Turnover7–14
MIAQ2 0:39430Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 0:081-2End of half7–21
MIAQ3 15:003-7Punt7–21
ATLQ3 12:41532Turnover7–21
MIAQ3 9:48413Punt7–21
ATLQ3 7:36866Turnover on downs7–21
MIAQ3 3:31878Turnover7–21
ATLQ4 14:401053Turnover7–21
ATLQ4 9:57249Touchdown14–21
MIAQ4 9:16737Punt14–21
ATLQ4 5:221076Turnover on downs14–21
MIAQ4 0:4730End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick11/2021412
Chris Chandler7/115101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick56312.60
Maurice Smith15382.51
Rodney Thomas7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis47620
Shawn Jefferson24570
Brian Finneran12520
Brian Kozlowski22240
Tony Martin34240
Maurice Smith12120
Alge Crumpler0300

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler16/2919121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Minor9333.70
Jay Fiedler4133.30
Lamar Smith740.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Minor710651
Chris Chambers25440
Jed Weaver23360
James McKnight23310
Oronde Gadsden37151
Dedric Ward0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.33