Closing spread
ATL -14
Total
46
Model margin
+5.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.047
- 39.2%Success rate45.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.152
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.06CPOE+2.96
- 31.0%Third-down rate44.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.31Points / drive2.02
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/33 | 151 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 26 | 130 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 14 | 62 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/35 | 248 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 7 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.00