2017 · Week 6

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

20·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -14

Total

46

Model margin

+5.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.047
  • 39.2%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.152
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.06CPOE+2.96
  • 31.0%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive2.02
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIA @ ATL34–10MIA
2021 · W7ATL @ MIA30–28ATL
2013 · W3ATL @ MIA23–27MIA
2009 · W1MIA @ ATL7–19ATL
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL
2001 · W16ATL @ MIA14–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001131Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 9:41639Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:40990Touchdown0–10
MIAQ1 1:51635Punt0–10
ATLQ2 13:1934Punt0–10
MIAQ2 11:48632Turnover on downs0–10
ATLQ2 7:52561Touchdown0–17
MIAQ2 5:291034Turnover0–17
ATLQ2 1:04547Missed field goal0–17
MIAQ3 15:001570Touchdown7–17
ATLQ3 6:1738Punt7–17
MIAQ3 4:02713Touchdown14–17
ATLQ3 1:32943Turnover on downs14–17
MIAQ4 11:42721Field goal17–17
ATLQ4 8:343-6Punt17–17
MIAQ4 7:00946Field goal20–17
ATLQ4 2:30961Turnover20–17
MIAQ4 0:3900End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/3315121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi261305.00
Damien Williams492.30
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry814621
Kenny Stills44491
Julius Thomas35220
Damien Williams33140
Jakeem Grant1140
Jay Ajayi0300
Leonte Carroo0300

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3524811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman9687.60
Tevin Coleman9323.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones67720
Austin Hooper79480
Marvin Hall12401
Taylor Gabriel48390
Justin Hardy33340
Devonta Freeman24110
Tevin Coleman1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.00