2009 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Pennington

7·19

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

44

Model margin

+5.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.041
  • 45.9%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback+0.093
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.24CPOE-1.75
  • 48.8%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.97
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIA @ ATL34–10MIA
2021 · W7ATL @ MIA30–28ATL
2017 · W6MIA @ ATL20–17MIA
2013 · W3ATL @ MIA23–27MIA
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL
2001 · W16ATL @ MIA14–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001245Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 9:2635Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 7:5547Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:54934Punt0–0
ATLQ1 1:041499Touchdown0–7
MIAQ2 8:37524Punt0–7
ATLQ2 5:2234Punt0–7
MIAQ2 3:57643Turnover0–7
ATLQ2 1:43413Field goal0–10
MIAQ2 0:3210End of half0–10
MIAQ3 15:0035Punt0–10
ATLQ3 13:1439Punt0–10
MIAQ3 11:523-5Punt0–10
ATLQ3 9:5434Punt0–10
MIAQ3 7:471043Turnover0–10
ATLQ3 1:39320Touchdown0–16
MIAQ3 1:17224Turnover0–16
ATLQ3 0:27718Missed field goal0–16
MIAQ4 12:2035Punt0–16
ATLQ4 11:30738Field goal0–19
MIAQ4 7:351481Touchdown7–19
ATLQ4 3:22428End of half7–19

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington21/2917611
Pat White0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown10434.30
Ricky Williams7395.60
Ted Ginn294.50
Pat White100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess77570
Ted Ginn25260
Joey Haynos11210
Greg Camarillo22200
Ricky Williams24191
Brian Hartline22130
Ronnie Brown34100
Anthony Fasano23100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3622920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner22653.00
Jerious Norwood273.50
Matt Ryan3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez59731
Jerious Norwood56490
Roddy White510420
Michael Jenkins45410
Michael Turner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.55