Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
44
Model margin
+5.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.041
- 45.9%Success rate43.4%
- -0.013EPA / dropback+0.093
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.24CPOE-1.75
- 48.8%Third-down rate42.8%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.82Points / drive1.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/29 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
| Pat White | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Pat White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/36 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 22 | 65 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.55