Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.040
- 40.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.65Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 22/31 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 13/22 | 103 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | -13 | -6.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.49