Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.046
- 41.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.180
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.85CPOE-0.02
- 38.5%Third-down rate41.1%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.58Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/40 | 336 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 8 | 163 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 32/40 | 291 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.75