2021 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

30·28

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.2%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.180
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.85CPOE-0.02
  • 38.5%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.58
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIA @ ATL34–10MIA
2017 · W6MIA @ ATL20–17MIA
2013 · W3ATL @ MIA23–27MIA
2009 · W1MIA @ ATL7–19ATL
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL
2001 · W16ATL @ MIA14–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001475Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 7:533-2Punt0–7
MIAQ1 6:1237Punt0–7
ATLQ1 4:381068Field goal3–7
MIAQ2 14:13844Missed field goal3–7
ATLQ2 9:561061Touchdown10–7
MIAQ2 4:47951Turnover10–7
ATLQ2 0:36562Field goal13–7
MIAQ2 0:0400End of half13–7
ATLQ3 15:00377Touchdown20–7
MIAQ3 13:53515Punt20–7
ATLQ3 10:4336Punt20–7
MIAQ3 9:031058Touchdown20–14
ATLQ3 5:15825Punt20–14
MIAQ3 2:26418Punt20–14
ATLQ4 15:0032Turnover20–14
MIAQ4 14:0910Turnover20–14
ATLQ4 13:57310Touchdown27–14
MIAQ4 12:51990Touchdown27–21
ATLQ4 8:29726Turnover27–21
MIAQ4 5:541055Touchdown27–28
ATLQ4 2:27664Field goal30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/4033621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson14604.31
Mike Davis4102.50
Wayne Gallman122.00
Matt Ryan300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts781630
Russell Gage46671
Hayden Hurst34350
Calvin Ridley410261
Tajae Sharpe22180
Olamide Zaccheaus11130
Lee Smith1270
Cordarrelle Patterson2510

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa32/4029142

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin15674.50
Tua Tagovailoa4297.30
Salvon Ahmed7263.70
Malcolm Brown3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki78851
Jaylen Waddle78830
Durham Smythe34370
Salvon Ahmed22260
Adam Shaheen45230
Mack Hollins23131
Isaiah Ford11101
Myles Gaskin44101
Preston Williams1450
Malcolm Brown11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.75