2013 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

23·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.040
  • 44.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.138
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.86CPOE-0.18
  • 42.4%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.51
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIA @ ATL34–10MIA
2021 · W7ATL @ MIA30–28ATL
2017 · W6MIA @ ATL20–17MIA
2009 · W1MIA @ ATL7–19ATL
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL
2001 · W16ATL @ MIA14–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIA
ATLQ1 15:001485Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 6:1233Punt7–0
ATLQ1 4:001042Field goal10–0
MIAQ2 13:02680Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 10:061388Field goal13–7
MIAQ2 2:04760Field goal13–10
MIAQ3 15:002-14Turnover13–10
ATLQ3 14:1259Touchdown20–10
MIAQ3 12:40847Field goal20–13
ATLQ3 9:12515Punt20–13
MIAQ3 6:45615Turnover20–13
ATLQ3 4:3030Punt20–13
MIAQ3 4:0546Punt20–13
MIAQ3 1:45319Touchdown20–20
ATLQ3 0:561065Field goal23–20
MIAQ4 11:393-5Punt23–20
ATLQ4 10:14973Missed field goal23–20
MIAQ4 4:461375Touchdown23–27
ATLQ4 0:3820Turnover23–27
MIAQ4 0:2600End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3823121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers18864.80
Julio Jones177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9131150
Tony Gonzalez45240
Roddy White24160
Harry Douglas1590
Jacquizz Rodgers2370
Levine Toilolo1121
Drew Davis0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill24/3523621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller8627.80
Daniel Thomas5214.21
Ryan Tannehill273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline46561
Brandon Gibson68490
Rishard Matthews44420
Charles Clay46400
Mike Wallace25220
Daniel Thomas11160
Michael Egnew1180
Lamar Miller1320
Dion Sims1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75