Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.040
- 44.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.86CPOE-0.18
- 42.4%Third-down rate35.5%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.70Points / drive1.51
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. MIA are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/38 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 13 | 115 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Drew Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 24/35 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75