2025 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

34·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.021EPA / play-0.008
  • 42.1%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.073
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.82CPOE-3.36
  • 34.1%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.82
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W7ATL @ MIA30–28ATL
2017 · W6MIA @ ATL20–17MIA
2013 · W3ATL @ MIA23–27MIA
2009 · W1MIA @ ATL7–19ATL
2005 · W9ATL @ MIA17–10ATL
2001 · W16ATL @ MIA14–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–ATL
MIAQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:2335Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:061563Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 2:33843Field goal7–3
MIAQ2 12:59416Punt7–3
ATLQ2 10:3234Punt7–3
MIAQ2 8:30425Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 6:1437Punt10–3
MIAQ2 4:401172Touchdown17–3
ATLQ2 0:1100End of half17–3
ATLQ3 15:0037Punt17–3
MIAQ3 13:2634Punt17–3
ATLQ3 11:20320Turnover17–3
MIAQ3 10:231178Touchdown24–3
ATLQ3 4:18627Turnover on downs24–3
MIAQ3 2:34746Touchdown31–3
ATLQ4 13:28722Turnover on downs31–3
MIAQ4 10:56420Field goal34–3
ATLQ4 8:361165Touchdown34–10
MIAQ4 5:01721Turnover on downs34–10
ATLQ4 1:02214End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa20/2620540
Zach Wilson1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane18673.70
Ollie Gordon II10464.60
Jaylen Wright9283.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle56991
Malik Washington45361
De'Von Achane57241
Ollie Gordon II11201
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine13180
Tanner Conner2260
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1120
Jaylen Wright1100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3117300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson9252.80
Nate Carter2147.00
Tyler Allgeier441.01
Kirk Cousins221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts99590
KhaDarel Hodge38310
Casey Washington11250
Bijan Robinson33230
David Sills23140
Darnell Mooney14110
Tyler Allgeier22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.72