Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play-0.008
- 42.1%Success rate44.5%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.073
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.82CPOE-3.36
- 34.1%Third-down rate33.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.92Points / drive1.82
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.6 points. ATL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/26 | 205 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 99 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 173 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Nate Carter | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 9 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Sills | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.72