Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
33.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.063
- 40.8%Success rate39.4%
- -0.233EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.099
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.6%Third-down rate33.3%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 0.28Points / drive1.28
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:04 | 9 | 18 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:14 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 2:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 0:46 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 13:03 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 9:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 8:20 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 7:12 | 11 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 1:17 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:02 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| JAX | Q3 11:27 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 10:23 | 2 | 9 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| JAX | Q3 9:40 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q3 6:59 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| JAX | Q3 1:52 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–23 |
| CHI | Q3 1:30 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 6–26 |
| JAX | Q4 12:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–26 |
| CHI | Q4 11:42 | 7 | 35 | Touchdown | 6–33 |
| JAX | Q4 7:37 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–33 |
| CHI | Q4 3:50 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 13–33 |
| JAX | Q4 1:37 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 13–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/36 | 189 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 9 | 15 | 93 | 1 |
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 19/28 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 33 | 160 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne Bates | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 6 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.48