Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
34
Model margin
+4.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.036
- 35.2%Success rate39.9%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.111
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- 25.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 0.78Points / drive1.27
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:24 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:34 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 8:07 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 3:18 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 14:12 | 5 | 56 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:28 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 8:50 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 5:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 3:50 | 4 | 26 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:44 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:31 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 11:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 9:52 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q3 5:36 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q3 2:35 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 3–15 |
| CHI | Q4 13:52 | 1 | -4 | Safety | 3–15 |
| JAX | Q4 13:48 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–22 |
| CHI | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 3–22 |
| JAX | Q4 8:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–22 |
| CHI | Q4 6:33 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 3–22 |
| JAX | Q4 5:14 | 7 | 11 | Turnover | 3–22 |
| CHI | Q4 1:45 | 4 | -3 | Turnover on downs | 3–22 |
| JAX | Q4 0:44 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 3–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 17/33 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 25/45 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08