Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
34
Model margin
+4.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.036
- 35.2%Success rate39.9%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.111
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- 25.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 0.78Points / drive1.27
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 17/33 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 25/45 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08