Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.095
- 44.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.08CPOE-3.00
- 41.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.65Points / drive1.70
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:13 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 12:36 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:28 | 12 | 87 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q1 0:19 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 14:04 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 11:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 9:02 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 7:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 4:53 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q2 2:44 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q2 1:17 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–20 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q3 12:37 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–20 |
| CHI | Q3 11:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q3 10:07 | 10 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| CHI | Q3 4:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q3 3:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–20 |
| CHI | Q3 1:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q3 0:41 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| CHI | Q4 12:09 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| JAX | Q4 8:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–23 |
| CHI | Q4 7:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–23 |
| JAX | Q4 5:54 | 11 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 10–23 |
| CHI | Q4 2:44 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 10–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 19/38 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 20/34 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.53