Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.072
- 41.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- -0.88CPOE-0.22
- 36.6%Third-down rate33.1%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.74Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/35 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 10 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 8 | 45 | 2 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 23/29 | 226 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 5 | 70 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 41 | 2 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44