2024 · Week 6

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

16·35

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBears
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.072
  • 41.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.6%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -0.88CPOE-0.22
  • 36.6%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W16CHI @ JAX41–17CHI
2016 · W6JAX @ CHI17–16JAX
2012 · W5CHI @ JAX41–3CHI
2008 · W14JAX @ CHI10–23CHI
2004 · W14CHI @ JAX3–22JAX
2001 · W17JAX @ CHI13–33CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:491376Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 4:3733Punt3–0
JAXQ1 3:04522Punt3–0
CHIQ2 14:53877Touchdown3–7
JAXQ2 11:0736Punt3–7
CHIQ2 9:26854Turnover3–7
JAXQ2 5:1038Punt3–7
CHIQ2 3:081085Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 0:1300End of half3–14
JAXQ3 15:00124Turnover3–14
CHIQ3 14:40846Touchdown3–21
JAXQ3 11:221280Touchdown10–21
CHIQ3 6:021355Touchdown10–28
JAXQ4 14:563-3Turnover10–28
CHIQ4 13:35336Touchdown10–35
JAXQ4 12:291770Touchdown16–35
CHIQ4 6:58716Missed field goal16–35
JAXQ4 3:213-4Punt16–35
CHIQ4 1:5200End of half16–35

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3523421
Mac Jones1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Ernest Johnson6284.70
Tank Bigsby7243.40
Trevor Lawrence4174.30
Travis Etienne3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram10101020
Gabe Davis58452
Christian Kirk36390
Brian Thomas Jr.36270
D'Ernest Johnson22160
Brenton Strange12110
Travis Etienne0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams23/2922641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift17915.41
Caleb Williams45614.00
Roschon Johnson581.60
Tyson Bagent3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet55702
Keenan Allen55412
Rome Odunze22400
D'Andre Swift44280
Roschon Johnson23250
DJ Moore45200
Marcedes Lewis1120
Gerald Everett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44