Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
47
Model margin
-3.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.050
- 44.0%Success rate42.0%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.28CPOE-0.40
- 34.8%Third-down rate40.6%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 1.97Points / drive1.74
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 24/35 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 23 | 95 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Artavis Pierce | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 13 | 103 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 5 | 69 | 2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 24/37 | 211 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.2%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.72