2020 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

41·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mike Glennon

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -9.5

Total

47

Model margin

-3.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.050
  • 44.0%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.28CPOE-0.40
  • 34.8%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.74
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6JAX @ CHI16–35CHI
2016 · W6JAX @ CHI17–16JAX
2012 · W5CHI @ JAX41–3CHI
2008 · W14JAX @ CHI10–23CHI
2004 · W14CHI @ JAX3–22JAX
2001 · W17JAX @ CHI13–33CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001171Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 8:141070Touchdown7–3
JAXQ1 3:1836Punt7–3
CHIQ1 1:29842Field goal10–3
JAXQ2 13:171070Touchdown10–10
CHIQ2 8:2130Punt10–10
JAXQ2 7:02518Punt10–10
CHIQ2 4:301260Turnover10–10
JAXQ2 0:2426Turnover10–10
CHIQ2 0:08110Field goal13–10
CHIQ3 15:001177Touchdown20–10
JAXQ3 9:1448Punt20–10
CHIQ3 7:18854Touchdown27–10
JAXQ3 3:1720Turnover27–10
CHIQ3 3:03225Touchdown34–10
JAXQ3 2:3030Punt34–10
CHIQ3 0:55948Touchdown41–10
JAXQ4 11:47620Punt41–10
CHIQ4 8:5737Punt41–10
JAXQ4 6:41664Touchdown41–17
CHIQ4 4:2930Punt41–17
JAXQ4 2:49416Punt41–17
CHIQ4 0:5500End of half41–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky24/3526521
Nick Foles0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery23954.11
Artavis Pierce22613.01
Mitchell Trubisky2105.01
Darnell Mooney122.00
Ryan Nall200.00
Nick Foles2-2-1.00
Cole Kmet1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson10131030
Jimmy Graham45692
Darnell Mooney47390
David Montgomery22260
Cole Kmet26180
Anthony Miller23100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon24/3721122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale14715.10
Craig Reynolds144.00
Devine Ozigbo111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark46621
Laviska Shenault Jr.57481
Chris Conley33270
Keelan Cole35260
James O'Shaughnessy23180
Tyler Eifert25170
Dare Ogunbowale3570
Devine Ozigbo1130
Craig Reynolds1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.2%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.72