Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.042
- 41.3%Success rate44.1%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -4.51CPOE-0.10
- 34.7%Third-down rate37.8%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.52Points / drive1.41
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 20/33 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 51 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 30/49 | 302 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'Deem Carey | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 11 | 15 | 113 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 13 | 93 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 6 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.01
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.60