2016 · Week 6

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

17·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Hoyer

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBears
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.042
  • 41.3%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -4.51CPOE-0.10
  • 34.7%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.41
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6JAX @ CHI16–35CHI
2020 · W16CHI @ JAX41–17CHI
2012 · W5CHI @ JAX41–3CHI
2008 · W14JAX @ CHI10–23CHI
2004 · W14CHI @ JAX3–22JAX
2001 · W17JAX @ CHI13–33CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:361474Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 4:421168Field goal0–3
JAXQ2 14:12416Punt0–3
CHIQ2 12:001686Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 4:2968Punt0–10
CHIQ2 1:47832Punt0–10
JAXQ2 0:1100End of half0–10
JAXQ3 15:0031Punt0–10
CHIQ3 13:51423Punt0–10
JAXQ3 11:5637Punt0–10
CHIQ3 10:1033Punt0–10
JAXQ3 9:1636Punt0–10
CHIQ3 7:361184Field goal0–13
JAXQ3 1:53758Touchdown7–13
CHIQ4 14:50416Punt7–13
JAXQ4 12:1525Turnover7–13
CHIQ4 11:34514Field goal7–16
JAXQ4 8:281063Field goal10–16
CHIQ4 4:5938Punt10–16
JAXQ4 3:18478Touchdown17–16
CHIQ4 2:49937Turnover on downs17–16
JAXQ4 0:5732End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles20/3327111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory11322.91
T.J. Yeldon6213.50
Blake Bortles310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns511740
Marqise Lee66610
Arrelious Benn11511
Allen Robinson36490
Julius Thomas24280
T.J. Yeldon1250
Chris Ivory2230
Marcedes Lewis0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer30/4930200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ka'Deem Carey9505.60
Jordan Howard15342.31
Josh Bellamy177.00
Brian Hoyer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith11151130
Alshon Jeffery713930
Eddie Royal46540
Zach Miller610360
Jordan Howard2460
Ka'Deem Carey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.01
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.60