Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.115
- 39.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.76CPOE-5.09
- 36.4%Third-down rate28.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.47Points / drive0.96
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/39 | 292 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 12 | 17 | 144 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 17/33 | 142 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.37