2012 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

41·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.115
  • 39.6%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.76CPOE-5.09
  • 36.4%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.47Points / drive0.96
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6JAX @ CHI16–35CHI
2020 · W16CHI @ JAX41–17CHI
2016 · W6JAX @ CHI17–16JAX
2008 · W14JAX @ CHI10–23CHI
2004 · W14CHI @ JAX3–22JAX
2001 · W17JAX @ CHI13–33CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:4639Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:2932Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:341182Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 4:231366Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 14:02950Punt3–3
JAXQ2 10:2036Punt3–3
CHIQ2 9:1035Punt3–3
JAXQ2 7:421165Turnover3–3
CHIQ2 1:55945Punt3–3
JAXQ2 0:1200End of half3–3
CHIQ3 15:001671Field goal6–3
JAXQ3 5:4220Opp touchdown13–3
JAXQ3 5:043-1Punt13–3
CHIQ3 3:31972Touchdown20–3
JAXQ4 14:55529Punt20–3
CHIQ4 12:40794Touchdown27–3
JAXQ4 8:3746Opp touchdown34–3
JAXQ4 7:5433Punt34–3
CHIQ4 6:31873Touchdown41–3
JAXQ4 1:4978End of half41–3

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3929221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte221074.90
Armando Allen55911.81
Michael Bush4266.50
Jay Cutler22211.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall12171441
Devin Hester24490
Michael Bush23260
Kellen Davis24260
Matt Forte24200
Alshon Jeffery24201
Dane Sanzenbacher1270
Kyle Adams0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert17/3314202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew12564.70
Rashad Jennings331.00
Blaine Gabbert210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts23430
Justin Blackmon38400
Marcedes Lewis57240
Kevin Elliott23170
Mike Thomas48150
Maurice Jones-Drew1330
Zach Potter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.37