2001 · Week 17

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Spergon Wynn

3·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

37.5

Model margin

+9.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRavens
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.088
  • 42.2%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.28
  • 3.7%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:2434Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:2348Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:46855Field goal3–0
BALQ1 5:501077Field goal3–3
MINQ2 14:5734Punt3–3
BALQ2 13:3736Punt3–3
MINQ2 12:43212Turnover3–3
BALQ2 12:161142Field goal3–6
MINQ2 6:29726Punt3–6
BALQ2 3:0069Turnover on downs3–6
MINQ2 0:5910Turnover3–6
BALQ2 0:58560Field goal3–9
MINQ3 15:00523Punt3–9
BALQ3 12:0736Punt3–9
MINQ3 10:4035Punt3–9
BALQ3 9:14985Field goal3–12
MINQ3 3:5239Punt3–12
BALQ3 1:223-5Punt3–12
MINQ3 0:0000Punt3–12
MINQ4 15:00617Punt3–12
BALQ4 12:01838Punt3–12
MINQ4 8:36726Turnover3–12
BALQ4 6:26515Punt3–12
MINQ4 4:4231Punt3–12
BALQ4 3:2034Punt3–18
MINQ4 1:451-14Opp touchdown3–19
BALQ4 1:3700Opp touchdown3–19
MINQ4 1:37411End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spergon Wynn13/298602
Randy Moss1/12900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett13524.00
Spergon Wynn2178.50
Doug Chapman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter57600
Byron Chamberlain37210
Michael Bennett23100
Randy Moss2790
Jake Reed1390
Andrew Jordan0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac10/2716000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen231335.80
Moe Williams7497.00
Jason Brookins7152.10
Obafemi Ayanbadejo188.00
Jermaine Lewis284.00
Travis Taylor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe24510
Brandon Stokley22500
Qadry Ismail28290
Moe Williams36190
Travis Taylor16110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.1%6.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.8%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.36
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+9.70