Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+9.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.088
- 42.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 42.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.40Points / drive1.28
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spergon Wynn | 13/29 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 1/1 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Spergon Wynn | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 10/27 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 23 | 133 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.8%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.36
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+9.70