2005 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brad Johnson

23·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

34

Model margin

+2.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRavens
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.109
  • 40.6%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.179
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.20
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%
  • -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.088

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BAL
MINQ1 15:00764Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 11:011773Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 1:3543Punt7–7
BALQ2 15:0056Punt7–7
MINQ2 11:16419Punt7–7
BALQ2 8:3438Punt7–7
MINQ2 7:031295Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 1:06856Field goal14–10
BALQ3 15:0000Field goal14–10
MINQ3 14:5238Field goal17–10
BALQ3 13:29770Touchdown17–17
MINQ3 9:491128Field goal20–17
BALQ3 4:141369Touchdown20–24
MINQ4 14:4738Punt20–24
BALQ4 12:32414Turnover20–24
MINQ4 10:23521Punt20–24
BALQ4 8:071163Field goal20–27
MINQ4 1:552-16Turnover20–27
BALQ4 1:3139Field goal20–30
MINQ4 1:03432Field goal23–30
BALQ4 0:1500End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson25/3624820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mewelde Moore10494.90
Michael Bennett1-1-1.00
Travis Taylor1-2-2.00
Ciatrick Fason2-4-2.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller24/3428931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis24743.10
Chester Taylor5153.00
Kyle Boller210.50
Mark Clayton1-2-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.79