2017 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

16·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapVikings
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.026
  • 42.5%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.33CPOE+3.66
  • 35.3%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIN
BALQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:5310Turnover0–0
BALQ1 12:41820Field goal3–0
MINQ1 8:301236Field goal3–3
BALQ1 3:396-6Punt3–3
MINQ1 0:45738Field goal3–6
BALQ2 12:55533Field goal6–6
MINQ2 9:5635Punt6–6
BALQ2 9:1839Punt6–6
MINQ2 7:361460Field goal6–9
BALQ2 0:35527End of half6–9
MINQ3 15:00760Field goal6–12
BALQ3 10:533-9Punt6–12
MINQ3 9:19345Touchdown6–18
BALQ3 7:58946Field goal9–18
MINQ3 2:5839Punt9–18
BALQ3 0:593-9Punt9–18
MINQ4 14:09535Field goal9–21
BALQ4 11:54622Punt9–21
MINQ4 9:501169Field goal9–24
BALQ4 3:031478Touchdown16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco27/3918610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins10303.00
Javorius Allen6203.30
Michael Campanaro11919.00
Joe Flacco100.00
Vince Mayle100.00
Chris Moore1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson55380
Chris Moore28361
Michael Campanaro33310
Javorius Allen811290
Griff Whalen46230
Nick Boyle23120
Mike Wallace1190
Bobby Rainey2280

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum20/3118801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray181136.31
Jerick McKinnon14473.40
Case Keenum199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright34540
Kyle Rudolph57430
Adam Thielen512410
Laquon Treadwell34280
Jerick McKinnon33100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.41