Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.026
- 42.5%Success rate42.5%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.33CPOE+3.66
- 35.3%Third-down rate44.3%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.79Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/39 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Vince Mayle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Michael Campanaro | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 20/31 | 188 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41