2025 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·19

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapVikings
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.094
  • 44.6%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.115
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +2.86CPOE-2.84
  • 41.4%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.75
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIN
BALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:13786Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 9:461042Field goal3–7
MINQ1 4:2538Punt3–7
BALQ1 2:0638Punt3–7
MINQ2 14:55631Field goal3–10
BALQ2 10:5635Punt3–10
MINQ2 9:10526Turnover3–10
BALQ2 6:471063Field goal6–10
MINQ2 1:1135Punt6–10
BALQ2 0:30450Field goal9–10
MINQ2 0:0200End of half9–10
MINQ3 15:00426Turnover9–10
BALQ3 12:41645Field goal12–10
MINQ3 10:1900Touchdown12–10
BALQ3 10:13623Touchdown19–10
MINQ3 8:02526Turnover on downs19–10
BALQ3 5:4430Missed field goal19–10
MINQ3 4:55634Field goal19–13
BALQ3 2:161167Touchdown27–13
MINQ4 10:40920Turnover on downs27–13
BALQ4 7:153-7Punt27–13
MINQ4 5:351066Touchdown27–19
BALQ4 3:23618Punt27–19
MINQ4 1:44637Turnover on downs27–19
BALQ4 0:0900End of half27–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2917610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry20753.80
Lamar Jackson9364.00
Keaton Mitchell4317.80
Zay Flowers166.00
Patrick Ricard133.00
Justice Hill111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers46750
Charlie Kolar12230
Isaiah Likely24170
DeAndre Hopkins24160
Mark Andrews35141
Justice Hill12120
Rashod Bateman12100
Derrick Henry3390

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy20/4224812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. McCarthy5489.60
Aaron Jones9475.21
Jordan Mason4256.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Nailor561241
Justin Jefferson412370
Jordan Addison311350
Aaron Jones36220
Adam Thielen23160
T.J. Hockenson2280
Jordan Mason1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.03