Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.094
- 44.6%Success rate43.3%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.115
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +2.86CPOE-2.84
- 41.4%Third-down rate32.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.30Points / drive1.75
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/29 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 20/42 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Nailor | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 12 | 37 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.03