Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.009
- 41.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.82CPOE+0.31
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.5%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.13Points / drive1.93
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 17/28 | 187 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 27/41 | 266 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21 | 120 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 9 | 12 | 116 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.73