2021 · Week 9

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

31·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+0.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRavens
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.009
  • 41.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.82CPOE+0.31
  • 36.6%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.93
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:001141Field goal0–3
MINQ1 10:34579Touchdown7–3
BALQ1 8:32735Punt7–3
MINQ1 4:441293Touchdown14–3
BALQ2 13:15622Punt14–3
MINQ2 9:0738Punt14–3
BALQ2 6:59517Punt14–3
MINQ2 4:37625Punt14–3
BALQ2 1:5210Turnover14–3
MINQ2 1:413-1Field goal17–3
BALQ2 1:25733Touchdown17–10
MINQ2 0:1910End of half23–10
MINQ3 15:0000Touchdown24–10
BALQ3 14:471167Touchdown24–17
MINQ3 8:39941Punt24–17
BALQ3 4:361882Touchdown24–24
MINQ4 9:193-3Punt24–24
BALQ4 7:45761Touchdown24–31
MINQ4 3:291075Touchdown31–31
BALQ4 1:03718End of half31–31
BALOT642Turnover31–31
MINOT31Punt31–31
BALOT1282Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins17/2818720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook171106.50
Justin Jefferson11111.00
Kene Nwangwu199.00
Kirk Cousins111.01
Alexander Mattison400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson35691
Tyler Conklin57450
K.J. Osborn12200
Dalvin Cook33120
Adam Thielen2761
Luke Stocker1150
Alexander Mattison1130
Dede Westbrook0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson27/4126632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson211205.70
Devonta Freeman13796.10
Le'Veon Bell11484.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown9121160
Rashod Bateman58520
Mark Andrews510440
Patrick Ricard35351
Devin Duvernay2281
Eric Tomlinson1170
Devonta Freeman2341

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.73