Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.096
- 41.4%Success rate36.3%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.263
- 10.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -2.09CPOE-1.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.33
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/38 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 7 | 141 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/50 | 245 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Brown | 7 | 11 | 92 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 11 | 48 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.12