2013 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

26·29

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 33°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRavens
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.096
  • 41.4%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.263
  • 10.2%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -2.09CPOE-1.63
  • 36.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.33
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2009 · W6BAL @ MIN31–33MIN
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00844Turnover0–0
MINQ1 11:0833Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:3532Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:41513Turnover0–0
BALQ1 6:29425Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 4:14631Punt0–7
BALQ1 1:3130Punt0–7
MINQ2 15:00411Punt0–7
BALQ2 13:263-4Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:2139Punt0–7
BALQ2 10:5930Punt0–7
MINQ2 10:101160Field goal3–7
BALQ2 4:2830Punt3–7
MINQ2 2:45424Punt3–7
BALQ2 1:09936End of half3–7
MINQ3 15:00738Field goal6–7
BALQ3 12:0239Punt6–7
MINQ3 10:0532Punt6–7
BALQ3 8:43935Turnover on downs6–7
MINQ3 4:3437Punt6–7
BALQ3 2:58416Turnover6–7
MINQ3 1:02523Touchdown12–7
BALQ4 14:22739Turnover on downs12–7
MINQ4 10:3634Punt12–7
BALQ4 9:41624Turnover12–7
MINQ4 7:5437Punt12–7
BALQ4 6:321137Touchdown12–15
MINQ4 2:05268Touchdown19–21
BALQ4 1:2700Touchdown19–22
MINQ4 1:16379Touchdown26–22
BALQ4 0:45662Touchdown26–29
MINQ4 0:0400End of half26–29

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel17/3826520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart15895.91
Adrian Peterson7131.90
Matt Cassel263.00
Cordarrelle Patterson166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson571411
Greg Jennings59530
Jerome Simpson48481
John Carlson24190
Adrian Peterson1240
Toby Gerhart0100
Chase Ford0100
Jarius Wright0100
Rhett Ellison0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/5024533

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice17673.90
Joe Flacco12222.00
Bernard Pierce7121.70
Jacoby Jones1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marlon Brown711921
Dennis Pitta611481
Ray Rice55420
Jacoby Jones47370
Torrey Smith15110
Ed Dickson2581
Bernard Pierce1250
Brandon Stokley1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.12