Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.085
- 44.3%Success rate45.1%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.239
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.29CPOE+5.77
- 41.4%Third-down rate45.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.99Points / drive2.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/43 | 385 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 10 | 11 | 117 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 12 | 97 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/29 | 278 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 143 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 7 | 176 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74