2009 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

31·33

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapVikings
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.3%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.239
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.29CPOE+5.77
  • 41.4%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BAL @ MIN27–19BAL
2021 · W9MIN @ BAL31–34BAL
2017 · W7BAL @ MIN16–24MIN
2013 · W14MIN @ BAL26–29BAL
2005 · W16MIN @ BAL23–30BAL
2001 · W17MIN @ BAL3–19BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIN
MINQ1 15:00661Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 11:253-4Punt0–7
MINQ1 9:37760Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 6:1631Punt0–14
MINQ1 5:103-3Punt0–14
BALQ1 3:28528Punt0–14
MINQ2 14:4937Punt0–14
BALQ2 12:37614Punt0–14
MINQ2 9:42632Punt0–14
BALQ2 6:32536Punt0–14
MINQ2 3:2234Punt0–14
BALQ2 1:47971Field goal3–14
MINQ2 0:0000End of half3–14
BALQ3 15:0032Punt3–14
MINQ3 12:51938Field goal3–17
BALQ3 7:16872Touchdown10–17
MINQ3 4:13467Field goal10–20
BALQ3 2:0536Punt10–20
MINQ3 0:501141Touchdown10–27
BALQ4 10:08775Touchdown17–27
MINQ4 8:35461Field goal17–30
BALQ4 6:01373Touchdown24–30
MINQ4 5:123-8Punt30–30
BALQ4 3:44133Touchdown31–30
MINQ4 3:37566Field goal31–33
BALQ4 1:56841Missed field goal31–33

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/4338520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice10777.72
Willis McGahee730.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice10111170
Derrick Mason712971
Mark Clayton38571
Todd Heap33510
Kelley Washington35480
Demetrius Williams11170

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre21/2927830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson221436.50
Chester Taylor8222.80
Percy Harvin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice671760
Visanthe Shiancoe44482
Adrian Peterson46230
Bernard Berrian35181
Percy Harvin24100
Jimmy Kleinsasser1130
Chester Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74