2002 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Broncos produced the widest margin at 30 points; the tightest finish was Vikings at Lions, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Eagles start A.J. Feeley rather than Donovan McNabb, which the model treats as worth about 1.0 points for them.
Browns start Kelly Holcomb rather than Tim Couch, which the model treats as worth about 6.8 points for them.
Lions start Mike McMahon rather than Joey Harrington, which the model treats as worth about 0.0 points for them.
Commanders start Patrick Ramsey rather than Shane Matthews, which the model treats as worth about 0.3 points for them.
Chiefs lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.161, 0.063 clear of second.
Buccaneers have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.206 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Cardinals at Broncos, where it rates Cardinals about 8.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
