2003 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.061
- 41.4%Success rate40.4%
- +0.040EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 40.0%Third-down rate34.4%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 39 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:56 | 14 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 1:59 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:21 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 6:43 | 7 | 84 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:41 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–13 |
| WAS | Q2 0:42 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–13 |
| WAS | Q3 12:47 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:39 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| WAS | Q3 7:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–13 |
| WAS | Q3 4:19 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| WAS | Q4 11:40 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:46 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q4 8:13 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q4 2:16 | 5 | 47 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/24 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 17/23 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trung Canidate | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59