2003 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

13·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

40

Model margin

+2.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.061
  • 41.4%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 40.0%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16WAS @ NYJ28–30NYJ
2019 · W11NYJ @ WAS34–17NYJ
2015 · W6WAS @ NYJ20–34NYJ
2011 · W13NYJ @ WAS34–19NYJ
2007 · W9WAS @ NYJ23–20WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde15/2410500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin15483.20
Santana Moss199.00
LaMont Jordan600.01

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey17/2318511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts18774.30
Trung Canidate10464.60
Patrick Ramsey22713.50
Chad Morton362.00
Rock Cartwright144.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.59