2007 · Week 9

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

23·20

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJets
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.075
  • 41.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.065
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.088
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.48CPOE+0.41
  • 41.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.32
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16WAS @ NYJ28–30NYJ
2019 · W11NYJ @ WAS34–17NYJ
2015 · W6WAS @ NYJ20–34NYJ
2011 · W13NYJ @ WAS34–19NYJ
2003 · W1NYJ @ WAS13–16WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell12/2314201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis361965.41
Ladell Betts9647.10
Jason Campbell23115.50
Mike Sellers155.00

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens23/4222610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones13493.80
Kellen Clemens7486.90
Leon Washington4133.30
Jerricho Cotchery11111.00
Chris Davis133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31