2007 · Week 9
Final / OT
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.075
- 41.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.48CPOE+0.41
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 14:47 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:54 | 15 | 54 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| WAS | Q1 1:58 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:59 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| WAS | Q2 9:21 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:28 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| WAS | Q2 5:25 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:55 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 9–17 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 12–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:49 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 12–17 |
| WAS | Q3 8:52 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:46 | 15 | 73 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| WAS | Q4 13:55 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:06 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 20–17 |
| WAS | Q4 9:24 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:13 | 15 | 64 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| WAS | Q4 0:10 | 2 | 29 | End of half | 20–20 |
| NYJ | OT | 4 | 42 | Punt | 20–20 |
| WAS | OT | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 12/23 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 36 | 196 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 23/42 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chris Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31