2011 · Week 13

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

34·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.058
  • 40.3%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.75CPOE-1.12
  • 35.5%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.48
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16WAS @ NYJ28–30NYJ
2019 · W11NYJ @ WAS34–17NYJ
2015 · W6WAS @ NYJ20–34NYJ
2007 · W9WAS @ NYJ23–20WAS
2003 · W1NYJ @ WAS13–16WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–WAS
WASQ1 15:00882Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 10:211869Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 1:15851Field goal7–10
NYJQ2 11:3234Punt7–10
WASQ2 9:3263Punt7–10
NYJQ2 8:12957Field goal10–10
WASQ2 3:06529Punt10–10
WASQ2 0:59518Field goal10–13
NYJQ2 0:1900End of half10–13
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt10–13
WASQ3 14:0631Punt10–13
NYJQ3 12:3837Punt10–13
WASQ3 11:033-3Punt10–13
NYJQ3 9:35614Field goal13–13
WASQ3 6:3624Turnover13–13
NYJQ3 6:2237Missed field goal13–13
WASQ3 4:1939Punt13–13
NYJQ3 2:5965Punt13–13
WASQ3 0:20946Punt13–13
NYJQ4 10:3039Punt13–13
WASQ4 9:2633Field goal13–16
NYJQ4 7:52556Touchdown20–16
WASQ4 4:493-11Turnover20–16
NYJQ4 4:2629Touchdown27–16
WASQ4 3:42930Field goal27–19
NYJQ4 1:59125Touchdown34–19
WASQ4 1:47542Turnover34–19
NYJQ4 0:2800End of half34–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez19/3216510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene22884.03
Jeremy Kerley166.00
LaDainian Tomlinson155.00
Mark Sanchez310.30
Joe McKnight1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes48581
Plaxico Burress36330
Shonn Greene34260
LaDainian Tomlinson11160
Dustin Keller36120
Jeremy Kerley1170
Patrick Turner1160
Matthew Mulligan1250
Joe McKnight1220

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman19/4622101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu231004.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis613990
Santana Moss512420
Roy Helu46420
David Anderson25210
Donte' Stallworth12140
Evan Royster1130
Jabar Gaffney0300
Logan Paulsen0100
Niles Paul0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.63