2011 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.058
- 40.3%Success rate41.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.75CPOE-1.12
- 35.5%Third-down rate36.9%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.48
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 19/32 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 19/46 | 221 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 6 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63