1999 · Week 3
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 67°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.030
- 44.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.047
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- 36.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.78Points / drive1.28
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/28 | 241 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 3 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 17/31 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Quinn Early | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73