2019 · Week 11
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.130
- 37.3%Success rate38.8%
- -0.119EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.164
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.20CPOE-2.94
- 30.8%Third-down rate29.0%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.49
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 19/30 | 293 | 4 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 19/35 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | 1 | 2 | 45 | 1 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Hale Hentges | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.05