2019 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

34·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.130
  • 37.3%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.164
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.20CPOE-2.94
  • 30.8%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.49
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16WAS @ NYJ28–30NYJ
2015 · W6WAS @ NYJ20–34NYJ
2011 · W13NYJ @ WAS34–19NYJ
2007 · W9WAS @ NYJ23–20WAS
2003 · W1NYJ @ WAS13–16WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–WAS
NYJQ1 15:00870Touchdown6–0
WASQ1 11:50513Punt6–0
NYJQ1 9:10525Punt6–0
WASQ1 6:2430Punt6–0
NYJQ1 4:251256Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 14:0146Punt13–0
NYJQ2 11:4432Turnover13–0
WASQ2 10:313-10Field goal13–3
NYJQ2 9:0500Missed field goal13–3
WASQ2 8:57516Missed field goal13–3
NYJQ2 6:37927Punt13–3
WASQ2 2:19314Punt13–3
NYJQ2 1:19382Touchdown20–3
WASQ2 0:36321End of half20–3
WASQ3 15:001340Turnover on downs20–3
NYJQ3 7:29426Punt20–3
WASQ3 5:4562Punt20–3
NYJQ3 2:441055Touchdown27–3
WASQ4 13:1110Turnover27–3
NYJQ4 12:5725Touchdown34–3
WASQ4 12:15669Touchdown34–11
NYJQ4 9:59952Missed field goal34–11
WASQ4 4:3130Punt34–11
NYJQ4 4:0533Punt34–11
WASQ4 3:06854Touchdown34–17
NYJQ4 1:1100End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold19/3029341
Bilal Powell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18593.31
Bilal Powell7426.00
Ty Montgomery2115.50
Josh Adams461.50
Sam Darnold2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin551091
Jamison Crowder58761
Demaryius Thomas45440
Le'Veon Bell22330
Daniel Brown11201
Robbie Chosen1361
Bilal Powell1250
Ty Montgomery0100
Vyncint Smith0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins19/3521421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson9252.80
Derrius Guice7243.40
Dwayne Haskins451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin34690
Kelvin Harmon56530
Derrius Guice12451
Jeremy Sprinkle23161
Wendell Smallwood13110
Trey Quinn2490
Steven Sims2460
Adrian Peterson2250
Hale Hentges1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.88
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.05