2015 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

20·34

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJets
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.025
  • 42.6%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +5.62CPOE-1.27
  • 43.9%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.90
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16WAS @ NYJ28–30NYJ
2019 · W11NYJ @ WAS34–17NYJ
2011 · W13NYJ @ WAS34–19NYJ
2007 · W9WAS @ NYJ23–20WAS
2003 · W1NYJ @ WAS13–16WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYJ
WASQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:21111Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:14737Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 9:291183Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 3:28630Punt7–7
NYJQ1 0:30774Field goal7–10
WASQ2 11:3531Punt7–10
NYJQ2 10:0733Punt7–10
WASQ2 8:4068Punt7–10
NYJQ2 5:09113Turnover7–10
WASQ2 5:02619Field goal10–10
NYJQ2 2:17636Turnover10–10
WASQ2 0:36540Field goal13–10
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half13–10
NYJQ3 15:0014Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 14:18124Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 13:38419Field goal13–13
WASQ3 11:0022Turnover13–19
NYJQ3 10:10118Touchdown13–20
WASQ3 10:0235Punt13–20
NYJQ3 8:49676Touchdown13–27
WASQ3 5:53610Turnover13–27
NYJQ3 3:17973Touchdown13–34
WASQ4 14:1830Punt13–34
NYJQ4 13:43520Missed field goal13–34
WASQ4 10:541364Turnover on downs13–34
NYJQ4 5:2734Opp touchdown20–34
NYJQ4 3:59618End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/4319612
Jamison Crowder0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris11211.90
Chris Thompson5122.40
Kirk Cousins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder49400
Derek Carrier44390
Pierre Garcon58281
Chris Thompson610260
Ryan Grant24220
Rashad Ross13160
Alfred Morris11110
Andre Roberts1460

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick19/2625321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory201467.31
Zac Stacy13463.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick4317.81
Bilal Powell4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall791111
Eric Decker47591
Chris Ivory33500
Quincy Enunwa23170
Zac Stacy22150
Bilal Powell1110
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.40