2015 · Week 6
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.025
- 42.6%Success rate41.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +5.62CPOE-1.27
- 43.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.81Points / drive1.90
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/43 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 19/26 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 146 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Zac Stacy | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.40