2023 · Week 16
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.230
- 41.9%Success rate35.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- +0.32CPOE-5.18
- 35.6%Third-down rate25.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.53Points / drive1.01
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 10/13 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 6/22 | 56 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 27/49 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 16 | 96 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 15 | 76 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Brownlee | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93