2023 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

28·30

Jets

New York

QB Trevor Siemian

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJets
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.230
  • 41.9%Success rate35.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +0.32CPOE-5.18
  • 35.6%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.01
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W11NYJ @ WAS34–17NYJ
2015 · W6WAS @ NYJ20–34NYJ
2011 · W13NYJ @ WAS34–19NYJ
2007 · W9WAS @ NYJ23–20WAS
2003 · W1NYJ @ WAS13–16WAS
1999 · W3WAS @ NYJ27–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYJ
WASQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:50417Field goal0–3
WASQ1 13:003-10Punt0–3
NYJQ1 11:5539Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 11:2632Punt0–10
NYJQ1 10:18242Touchdown0–17
WASQ1 9:37630Punt0–17
NYJQ1 7:311055Turnover on downs0–17
WASQ1 2:02420Punt0–17
NYJQ2 15:00920Punt0–17
NYJQ2 11:39717Field goal0–20
WASQ2 9:10414Punt0–20
NYJQ2 6:5110Turnover6–20
WASQ2 6:48112Touchdown7–20
NYJQ2 6:381166Touchdown7–27
WASQ2 1:3538Punt7–27
NYJQ2 1:10520End of half7–27
NYJQ3 15:00517Punt7–27
WASQ3 11:4539Punt7–27
NYJQ3 10:0537Punt7–27
WASQ3 9:1154Turnover7–27
NYJQ3 8:00316Turnover7–27
WASQ3 6:43634Touchdown14–27
NYJQ3 3:26728Punt14–27
WASQ4 14:101056Touchdown21–27
NYJQ4 9:33414Punt21–27
WASQ4 7:55759Touchdown28–27
NYJQ4 4:52922Punt28–27
WASQ4 2:0732Punt28–27
NYJQ4 1:41731Field goal28–30
WASQ4 0:0515End of half28–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett10/1310010
Sam Howell6/225602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.10585.82
Antonio Gibson9303.31
Jacoby Brissett11010.00
Curtis Samuel242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin35500
Logan Thomas56361
Jahan Dotson24310
Curtis Samuel16160
John Bates35140
Chris Rodriguez Jr.1170
Antonio Gibson1220
Jamison Crowder0100
Byron Pringle0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian27/4921711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall20954.82
Israel Abanikanda9434.80
Trevor Siemian4184.50
Xavier Gipson11616.00
Tyler Conklin100.00
Garrett Wilson1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall1216960
Garrett Wilson915760
Tyler Conklin47360
Jason Brownlee1381
Xavier Gipson1210
Allen Lazard0100
Kenny Yeboah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.93