Closing spread
NO -8
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.009
- 38.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 30.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.15Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:26 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 1:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:51 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 13:17 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:17 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 8:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 6:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 4:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 3:07 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 1:33 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q3 10:50 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NO | Q3 5:58 | 9 | 72 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 0:22 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q4 13:19 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q4 8:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–24 |
| NO | Q4 8:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q4 6:23 | 6 | 13 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| NO | Q4 4:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q4 3:48 | 4 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 10–31 |
| HOU | Q4 2:43 | 4 | -6 | Turnover on downs | 10–31 |
| NO | Q4 1:41 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/36 | 213 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Domanick Williams | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/27 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 1 |
| James Fenderson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.47