2003 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

10·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -8

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSaints
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.009
  • 38.7%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 30.8%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 65.8%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 1.15Points / drive1.71
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NO @ HOU13–20HOU
2019 · W1HOU @ NO28–30NO
2015 · W12NO @ HOU6–24HOU
2011 · W3HOU @ NO33–40NO
2007 · W11NO @ HOU10–23HOU

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr17/3621302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack13312.40
Domanick Williams6233.80
David Carr4143.51

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks18/2718920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister20964.81
James Fenderson382.70
Aaron Brooks341.30
Joe Horn122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.47