Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play+0.198
- 44.6%Success rate51.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.066EPA / rush+0.014
- 11.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.14CPOE+7.27
- 41.5%Third-down rate58.6%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.04Points / drive2.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/39 | 373 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 12 | 128 | 0 |
| James Casey | 5 | 7 | 126 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/44 | 370 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 9 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.40