2011 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

33·40

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

51

Model margin

+4.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSaints
  • +0.024EPA / play+0.198
  • 44.6%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.066EPA / rush+0.014
  • 11.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.14CPOE+7.27
  • 41.5%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.96
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NO @ HOU13–20HOU
2019 · W1HOU @ NO28–30NO
2015 · W12NO @ HOU6–24HOU
2007 · W11NO @ HOU10–23HOU
2003 · W2HOU @ NO10–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NO
HOUQ1 15:00992Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 10:13622Punt7–0
HOUQ1 7:00782Field goal10–0
NOQ1 3:1737Punt10–0
HOUQ1 2:07724Punt10–0
NOQ2 13:07886Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 8:23571Field goal13–7
NOQ2 6:2010Turnover13–7
HOUQ2 6:10525Field goal16–7
NOQ2 3:53662Field goal16–10
HOUQ2 0:3517End of half16–10
NOQ3 15:00868Touchdown16–17
HOUQ3 10:341150Field goal19–17
NOQ3 5:08724Turnover19–17
HOUQ3 2:00442Touchdown26–17
NOQ4 14:5457Punt26–17
HOUQ4 12:2131Punt26–17
NOQ4 11:20549Touchdown26–24
HOUQ4 9:3030Turnover26–24
NOQ4 9:08647Touchdown26–32
HOUQ4 7:10980Touchdown33–32
NOQ4 4:13880Touchdown33–40
HOUQ4 2:425-1Turnover on downs33–40
NOQ4 1:5334End of half33–40

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub22/3937331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate19824.30
James Casey11111.00
Andre Johnson188.00
Steve Slaton482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson7121280
James Casey571261
Owen Daniels59761
Kevin Walter33351
Ben Tate1480
Joel Dreessen0100
Jacoby Jones1200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4437032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram9384.21
Darren Sproles23517.51
Pierre Thomas7284.00
Drew Brees4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham481001
Lance Moore99881
Devery Henderson34620
Robert Meachem58511
Darren Sproles610500
Pierre Thomas11150
David Thomas1270
Mark Ingram22-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.40