2023 · Week 6

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

13·20

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapTexans
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.2%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.94CPOE-1.53
  • 39.4%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W1HOU @ NO28–30NO
2015 · W12NO @ HOU6–24HOU
2011 · W3HOU @ NO33–40NO
2007 · W11NO @ HOU10–23HOU
2003 · W2HOU @ NO10–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00839Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:13846Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 6:4022Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 5:56659Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 3:41975Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 0:131070Field goal7–10
NOQ2 10:2834Punt7–10
HOUQ2 9:071065Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 2:561261Field goal10–17
HOUQ2 0:1813End of half10–17
NOQ3 15:00615Punt10–17
HOUQ3 11:3231Punt10–17
NOQ3 9:5530Punt10–17
HOUQ3 9:10632Field goal10–20
NOQ3 7:011058Field goal13–20
HOUQ3 2:173-2Punt13–20
NOQ3 0:421058Missed field goal13–20
HOUQ4 11:07622Punt13–20
NOQ4 8:07773Turnover on downs13–20
HOUQ4 4:3166Punt13–20
NOQ4 2:411440Turnover13–20
HOUQ4 0:1611End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr32/5035311
Taysom Hill1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19683.60
Rashid Shaheed2189.00
Derek Carr122.00
Taysom Hill122.00
Kendre Miller2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave710960
Rashid Shaheed26851
Taysom Hill78490
Michael Thomas58450
Alvin Kamara78360
Foster Moreau44330
Kendre Miller12130

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud13/2719921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary12584.80
Dameon Pierce13342.60
Xavier Hutchinson2157.50
Mike Boone11111.00
C.J. Stroud320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins46800
Dalton Schultz47611
Noah Brown25370
Brevin Jordan11110
Robert Woods1361
Devin Singletary1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.41