Closing spread
NO -2
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.023
- 42.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.94CPOE-1.53
- 39.4%Third-down rate37.7%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.82Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 32/50 | 353 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13/27 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.41