Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play-0.055
- 44.6%Success rate40.4%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.172
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.78CPOE-4.17
- 48.9%Third-down rate39.6%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.09Points / drive1.50
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/44 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 21/27 | 205 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.49