2015 · Week 12

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

6·24

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapTexans
  • +0.080EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.6%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.172
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.78CPOE-4.17
  • 48.9%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.50
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NO @ HOU13–20HOU
2019 · W1HOU @ NO28–30NO
2011 · W3HOU @ NO33–40NO
2007 · W11NO @ HOU10–23HOU
2003 · W2HOU @ NO10–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–HOU
NOQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:031175Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 6:573-3Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:58745Touchdown0–14
NOQ1 1:2939Punt0–14
HOUQ2 15:00426Turnover0–14
NOQ2 12:5767Punt0–14
HOUQ2 10:2134Punt0–14
NOQ2 8:52541Field goal3–14
HOUQ2 6:31837Punt3–14
NOQ2 2:31752Field goal6–14
HOUQ2 1:1235End of half6–14
HOUQ3 15:00865Touchdown6–21
NOQ3 11:28411Punt6–21
HOUQ3 9:28752Field goal6–24
NOQ3 6:0534Punt6–24
HOUQ3 4:3049Punt6–24
NOQ3 2:091064Turnover6–24
HOUQ4 12:1164Punt6–24
NOQ4 9:061269Turnover on downs6–24
HOUQ4 5:43643End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/4422801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram9525.80
C.J. Spiller1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson49530
Willie Snead47500
Mark Ingram68450
Marques Colston34380
Brandin Cooks58350
C.J. Spiller2380
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Josh Hill0100
Brandon Coleman0100
Trevor Graham11-10

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer21/2720521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue16774.81
Akeem Hunt3279.00
Jonathan Grimes7253.60
Chris Polk6213.50
Cecil Shorts3206.70
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin45721
Nate Washington34430
DeAndre Hopkins58360
C.J. Fiedorowicz22200
Cecil Shorts34181
Jonathan Grimes1180
Chris Polk1160
Alfred Blue1140
Akeem Hunt11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.49