2007 · Week 11

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

10·23

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

50

Model margin

+0.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapTexans
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.015
  • 47.6%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.052
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +4.63CPOE+3.67
  • 46.0%Third-down rate44.5%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.85
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NO @ HOU13–20HOU
2019 · W1HOU @ NO28–30NO
2015 · W12NO @ HOU6–24HOU
2011 · W3HOU @ NO33–40NO
2003 · W2HOU @ NO10–31NO

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees33/4929012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush15342.30
Drew Brees166.00
Pierre Thomas166.00
Lance Moore100.00

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub21/3329320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne21894.20
Matt Schaub273.50
Kevin Walter155.00
Adimchinobe Echemandu122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.85