Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
50
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.015
- 47.6%Success rate45.4%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +4.63CPOE+3.67
- 46.0%Third-down rate44.5%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.69Points / drive1.85
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:29 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:09 | 3 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 10:44 | 12 | 78 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 4:44 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:05 | 11 | 46 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 12:01 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 8:21 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:48 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 4:39 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 2:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 1:19 | 6 | 42 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| NO | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 11:52 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 8:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 7:27 | 12 | 43 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 0:40 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q4 13:20 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| NO | Q4 12:22 | 10 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| HOU | Q4 7:17 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| NO | Q4 1:57 | 7 | 54 | End of half | 10–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/49 | 290 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/33 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.85