2019 · Week 1

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

28·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

52

Model margin

+5.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSaints
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.084
  • 45.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.12CPOE+3.92
  • 43.7%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.45
  • 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NO @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W12NO @ HOU6–24HOU
2011 · W3HOU @ NO33–40NO
2007 · W11NO @ HOU10–23HOU
2003 · W2HOU @ NO10–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NO
HOUQ1 15:0057Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:39541Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:08413Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:57838Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 2:558104Touchdown7–0
NOQ2 14:131065Field goal7–3
HOUQ2 9:221980Touchdown14–3
NOQ2 1:47637Missed field goal14–3
NOQ3 15:00583Touchdown14–10
HOUQ3 12:511070Touchdown21–10
NOQ3 8:201175Touchdown21–17
HOUQ3 2:3932Turnover21–17
NOQ3 1:48447Touchdown21–24
HOUQ4 14:55618Punt21–24
NOQ4 10:47525Punt21–24
HOUQ4 7:44745Punt21–24
NOQ4 3:29764Field goal21–27
HOUQ4 0:50275Touchdown28–27
NOQ4 0:37335Field goal28–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/3026831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde10838.30
Duke Johnson9576.30
Deshaun Watson44010.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins8131112
Will Fuller23690
Kenny Stills33371
Duke Johnson45330
Jordan Akins12170
Carlos Hyde1120
Darren Fells0100
DeAndre Carter11-10

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4337021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13977.50
Latavius Murray6437.21
Taysom Hill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10131230
Ted Ginn771010
Alvin Kamara78720
Jared Cook23370
Tre'Quan Smith22261
Taysom Hill1291
Latavius Murray2340
Josh Hill11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.34