Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
52
Model margin
+5.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.084
- 45.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.12CPOE+3.92
- 43.7%Third-down rate43.9%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.18Points / drive2.45
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. NO are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/30 | 268 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 13 | 111 | 2 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/43 | 370 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 97 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 7 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.34