2003 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

17·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

-0.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.061
  • 40.7%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.45
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. WAS are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9WAS @ NE20–17WAS
2019 · W5NE @ WAS33–7NE
2015 · W9WAS @ NE10–27NE
2011 · W14NE @ WAS34–27NE
2007 · W8WAS @ NE7–52NE

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3828923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith14564.00
Kevin Faulk10121.20
Deion Branch11111.00
Troy Brown11010.00
Tom Brady122.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey10/2214700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trung Canidate12675.60
Ladell Betts11353.21
Patrick Ramsey351.70
Rock Cartwright133.01
Laveranues Coles122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.92