2023 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

20·17

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.189
  • 41.9%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.226
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +0.32CPOE-3.39
  • 35.6%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.00
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. NE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W5NE @ WAS33–7NE
2015 · W9WAS @ NE10–27NE
2011 · W14NE @ WAS34–27NE
2007 · W8WAS @ NE7–52NE
2003 · W4NE @ WAS17–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NE
WASQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:231145Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 8:34842Field goal3–0
NEQ1 3:1435Punt3–0
WASQ1 2:211180Touchdown10–0
NEQ2 12:0536Punt10–0
WASQ2 11:1229Turnover10–0
NEQ2 10:25325Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 9:26532Punt10–7
NEQ2 6:41284Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 6:061675Turnover10–14
NEQ2 0:0900End of half10–14
NEQ3 15:001236Field goal10–17
WASQ3 10:14775Touchdown17–17
NEQ3 6:51516Punt17–17
WASQ3 4:39765Field goal20–17
NEQ3 1:49522Punt20–17
WASQ4 14:48620Punt20–17
NEQ4 11:10515Punt20–17
WASQ4 9:2031Punt20–17
NEQ4 7:10525Punt20–17
WASQ4 5:04926Punt20–17
NEQ4 2:07950Turnover20–17
WASQ4 0:3000End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell29/4532511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson18633.51
Antonio Gibson6345.70
Sam Howell5275.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin58730
Jahan Dotson48691
Byron Pringle34550
Antonio Gibson55420
Dyami Brown24330
Logan Thomas45310
Jamison Crowder46230
Brian Robinson1240
John Bates12-50

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones24/4422011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson9879.71
Ezekiel Elliott6172.80
Mac Jones331.00
DeMario Douglas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas57550
JuJu Smith-Schuster67510
Rhamondre Stevenson46420
Hunter Henry46391
Ezekiel Elliott35150
Jalen Reagor16110
Tyquan Thornton1470
Mike Gesicki0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.41