2023 · Week 9
Final
Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.189
- 41.9%Success rate38.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- +0.32CPOE-3.39
- 35.6%Third-down rate30.8%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.53Points / drive1.00
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. NE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 29/45 | 325 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/44 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 87 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41