2019 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
NE -15.5
Total
42
Model margin
-4.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.130
- 42.6%Success rate38.8%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.06CPOE-2.94
- 39.1%Third-down rate29.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.49
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. WAS are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/42 | 348 | 3 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 |
| James White | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 9 | 110 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| James White | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 18/27 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Sims | 1 | 65 | 65.0 | 1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.74