2019 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

33·7

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -15.5

Total

42

Model margin

-4.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.130
  • 42.6%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.06CPOE-2.94
  • 39.1%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.49
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. WAS are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9WAS @ NE20–17WAS
2015 · W9WAS @ NE10–27NE
2011 · W14NE @ WAS34–27NE
2007 · W8WAS @ NE7–52NE
2003 · W4NE @ WAS17–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–WAS
WASQ1 15:0045Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:28812Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:18267Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 9:26675Touchdown6–7
WASQ1 7:093-7Punt6–7
NEQ1 6:11848Turnover on downs6–7
WASQ1 2:30614Punt6–7
NEQ2 13:30821Field goal9–7
WASQ2 10:3530Punt9–7
NEQ2 8:38421Punt9–7
WASQ2 6:1817Turnover9–7
NEQ2 6:0934Turnover9–7
WASQ2 5:19642Punt9–7
NEQ2 1:49411Punt9–7
WASQ2 0:5810Turnover9–7
NEQ2 0:5136Field goal12–7
WASQ2 0:3013End of half12–7
NEQ3 15:00775Touchdown19–7
WASQ3 10:57635Punt19–7
NEQ3 7:40688Touchdown26–7
WASQ3 4:35414Punt26–7
NEQ3 3:24414Punt26–7
WASQ3 1:2274Punt26–7
NEQ4 13:221058Touchdown33–7
WASQ4 9:14511Punt33–7
NEQ4 6:1133Punt33–7
WASQ4 4:4435Punt33–7
NEQ4 4:0336Punt33–7
WASQ4 2:20423End of half33–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4234831
Jarrett Stidham0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel16915.71
James White6264.30
Brandon Bolden5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman891101
Josh Gordon58590
James White69460
Ryan Izzo22391
Sony Michel33320
Brandon Bolden11291
Matt LaCosse14220
Jakobi Meyers1260
Jakob Johnson1250

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy18/2712201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Sims16565.01
Wendell Smallwood6274.50
Chris Thompson4215.30
Adrian Peterson7182.60
Colt McCoy2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin37510
Trey Quinn34180
Chris Thompson57170
Jeremy Sprinkle23170
Paul Richardson22140
Kelvin Harmon1140
Steven Sims2310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -15.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.74