2015 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

10·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NE -13.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.089
  • 42.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +5.62CPOE-0.32
  • 43.9%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.25
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. NE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9WAS @ NE20–17WAS
2019 · W5NE @ WAS33–7NE
2011 · W14NE @ WAS34–27NE
2007 · W8WAS @ NE7–52NE
2003 · W4NE @ WAS17–20WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NE
NEQ1 15:001376Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:0100Turnover0–7
NEQ1 8:58529Turnover0–7
WASQ1 6:3810Turnover0–7
NEQ1 6:29628Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 4:3034Punt0–14
NEQ1 3:27652Turnover0–14
WASQ1 1:07710Turnover on downs0–14
NEQ2 12:591161Field goal0–17
WASQ2 7:561575Field goal3–17
NEQ2 0:1300End of half3–17
WASQ3 15:00644Turnover3–17
NEQ3 12:10854Field goal3–20
WASQ3 7:32310Punt3–20
NEQ3 6:05414Punt3–20
WASQ3 5:0633Punt3–20
NEQ3 4:101598Touchdown3–27
WASQ4 11:28724Punt3–27
NEQ4 9:151050Punt3–27
WASQ4 3:511380Touchdown10–27
NEQ4 0:2500End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/4021711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones11272.50
Alfred Morris4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon48700
Jamison Crowder68500
Andre Roberts22260
Chris Thompson24210
Jordan Reed37181
Matt Jones23170
DeSean Jackson36150
Derek Carrier0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3929921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount291294.41
Dion Lewis4143.50
Brandon Bolden11212.00
Danny Amendola188.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00
Jimmy Garoppolo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell591020
Julian Edelman58551
Rob Gronkowski45470
Dion Lewis45390
Brandon Bolden34271
Danny Amendola45240
Scott Chandler1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+2.25