2015 · Week 9
Final
Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.089
- 42.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- +5.62CPOE-0.32
- 43.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.81Points / drive2.25
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. NE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/40 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/39 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 29 | 129 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.25