2007 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

7·52

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -15

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.256
  • 41.8%Success rate53.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.422
  • -0.199EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.48CPOE+7.39
  • 41.1%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive3.13
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. NE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9WAS @ NE20–17WAS
2019 · W5NE @ WAS33–7NE
2015 · W9WAS @ NE10–27NE
2011 · W14NE @ WAS34–27NE
2003 · W4NE @ WAS17–20WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell21/3619711
Antwaan Randle El0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis11272.50
Ladell Betts393.00
Jason Campbell177.00
Mike Sellers144.00

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/3830630
Matt Cassel2/32800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney14755.40
Kevin Faulk5326.40
Matt Cassel11515.01
Tom Brady4143.52
Kyle Eckel420.50
Matt Gutierrez2-10-5.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.48