2011 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutSebastian VollmerTBack· DNP
- DoubtfulJermaine CunninghamLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon SpikesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDan ConnollyGGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDane FletcherLBThumb· Limited
- QuestionableDanny WoodheadRBAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableDevin McCourtyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJames IhedigboSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRBack· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRyan WendellCCalf· Limited
- QuestionableShane VereenRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableMarcus CannonTNot Injury Related· DNP
- DNPStevan RidleyRBNot Injury Related
- ProbableWes WelkerWRKnee· Limited
Commanders
- OutChris BakerDTQuadricep· DNP
- OutLaRon LandrySGroin· DNP
- DNPChris NeildDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableDarrel YoungRBHead· Full
- ProbableDeAngelo HallCBBack· Full
- ProbableDeJon GomesSKnee· Full
- ProbableJammal BrownTHip· Full
- ProbableLondon FletcherLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMaurice HurtGKnee· Full
- ProbableRex GrossmanQBleft Shoulder· Full
- ProbableSaverio RoccaPleft Ankle· Full
- ProbableStephen BowenDEKnee· Full
- ProbableTerrence AustinWRHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Commanders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.058
- 51.2%Success rate41.9%
- +0.301EPA / dropback-0.048
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.92CPOE-1.12
- 46.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 2.61Points / drive1.48
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. WAS are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:52 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:58 | 3 | -4 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:06 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 6:42 | 2 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q1 5:49 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NE | Q1 1:20 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–16 |
| WAS | Q2 15:00 | 1 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| NE | Q2 14:49 | 15 | 72 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q2 8:54 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| NE | Q2 2:13 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| WAS | Q3 12:05 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| NE | Q3 6:58 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–27 |
| WAS | Q3 4:26 | 9 | 44 | Punt | 34–27 |
| NE | Q3 0:28 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 34–27 |
| WAS | Q4 12:43 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 34–27 |
| NE | Q4 10:34 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 34–27 |
| WAS | Q4 6:30 | 13 | 81 | Turnover | 34–27 |
| NE | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/37 | 357 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 160 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 19/32 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandon Banks | 1/1 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 27 | 126 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45