2011 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.058
- 51.2%Success rate41.9%
- +0.301EPA / dropback-0.048
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.92CPOE-1.12
- 46.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 2.61Points / drive1.48
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. WAS are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/37 | 357 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 160 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 19/32 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandon Banks | 1/1 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 27 | 126 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45