Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.123
- 39.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.0%Third-down rate32.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.45Points / drive0.93
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/26 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 1 | 68 | 68.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 22 | 39 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 31/43 | 276 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Delvin Joyce | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40