Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.123
- 39.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.0%Third-down rate32.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.45Points / drive0.93
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:52 | 4 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:31 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 7:07 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:50 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 0:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:28 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:47 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:10 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 10:45 | 4 | 16 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 9:16 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q2 7:39 | 7 | 8 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q2 4:43 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| NYG | Q2 1:29 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| NYG | Q3 13:17 | 17 | 83 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:16 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| NYG | Q4 12:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–10 |
| MIA | Q4 11:15 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| NYG | Q4 4:16 | 6 | 55 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| MIA | Q4 2:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–10 |
| NYG | Q4 0:59 | 5 | 45 | End of half | 23–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/26 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 1 | 68 | 68.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 22 | 39 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 31/43 | 276 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Delvin Joyce | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40