2023 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

16·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -12.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.165EPA / play+0.095
  • 38.2%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +0.19CPOE+4.40
  • 30.9%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W13NYG @ MIA9–20MIA
2019 · W15MIA @ NYG20–36NYG
2015 · W14NYG @ MIA31–24NYG
2011 · W8MIA @ NYG17–20NYG
2007 · W8NYG @ MIA13–10NYG
2003 · W5MIA @ NYG23–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIA
NYGQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:27889Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:091248Missed field goal0–7
MIAQ2 14:55417Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 12:5337Punt0–7
MIAQ2 11:00394Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 10:021444Field goal3–14
MIAQ2 3:41576Opp touchdown10–14
MIAQ2 1:40750Field goal10–17
MIAQ3 15:00375Touchdown10–24
NYGQ3 14:06830Punt10–24
MIAQ3 9:17525Turnover10–24
NYGQ3 6:44414Field goal13–24
MIAQ3 4:26875Touchdown13–31
NYGQ4 15:0037Punt13–31
MIAQ4 14:0733Punt13–31
NYGQ4 12:45918Field goal16–31
MIAQ4 8:5139Punt16–31
NYGQ4 6:251574Turnover on downs16–31
MIAQ4 1:21312End of half16–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones14/2011900
Tyrod Taylor9/128600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eric Gray12252.10
Daniel Jones4246.00
Matt Breida9212.30
Tyrod Taylor3144.70
Wan'Dale Robinson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller811860
Darius Slayton24350
Parris Campbell22230
Isaiah Hodgins22190
Wan'Dale Robinson56180
Sterling Shepard12130
Daniel Bellinger1170
Matt Breida1130
Eric Gray1110

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/3030822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane1115113.71
Raheem Mostert10656.51
Tua Tagovailoa263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill891811
Cedrick Wilson Jr.44520
Jaylen Waddle510351
De'Von Achane11140
Raheem Mostert22130
Braxton Berrios22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.72