Closing spread
MIA -12.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play+0.095
- 38.2%Success rate47.3%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- +0.19CPOE+4.40
- 30.9%Third-down rate42.5%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.09Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/20 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9/12 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Gray | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 8 | 11 | 86 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/30 | 308 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 151 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 9 | 181 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.72