2019 · Week 15

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·36

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapGiants
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.064
  • 41.5%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.268EPA / rush-0.129
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.66CPOE-1.92
  • 35.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.56
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5NYG @ MIA16–31MIA
2021 · W13NYG @ MIA9–20MIA
2015 · W14NYG @ MIA31–24NYG
2011 · W8MIA @ NYG17–20NYG
2007 · W8NYG @ MIA13–10NYG
2003 · W5MIA @ NYG23–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYG
MIAQ1 15:00939Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 10:407-3Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:581152Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 2:18544Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:47994Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 9:03451Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 8:01527Punt7–7
NYGQ2 5:03940Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 1:20622Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 0:44420Turnover10–7
NYGQ3 15:00665Touchdown10–14
MIAQ3 11:5335Turnover10–14
NYGQ3 11:3339Turnover10–14
MIAQ3 10:07422Field goal13–14
NYGQ3 8:44417Punt13–14
MIAQ3 6:241-2Safety13–16
NYGQ3 6:20340Touchdown13–23
MIAQ3 5:1730Punt13–23
NYGQ3 4:13866Touchdown13–30
MIAQ4 14:54531Punt13–30
NYGQ4 12:45621Punt13–30
MIAQ4 8:37614Turnover on downs13–30
NYGQ4 6:35544Touchdown13–36
MIAQ4 4:41875Touchdown20–36
NYGQ4 1:543-2Punt20–36
MIAQ4 0:4615End of half20–36

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick23/4127920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Laird12463.80
Myles Gaskin9434.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick4338.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker47722
Albert Wilson58590
Mike Gesicki48470
Clive Walford24340
Myles Gaskin23290
Isaiah Ford35210
Allen Hurns1190
Patrick Laird2580

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/2828323
Alex Tanney1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley241124.72
Javorius Allen8283.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard9111110
Golden Tate14511
Kaden Smith33380
Saquon Barkley45310
Darius Slayton23311
Cody Latimer12210
Scott Simonson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.21