Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.064
- 41.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.66CPOE-1.92
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 1.62Points / drive1.56
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23/41 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Laird | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 72 | 2 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Clive Walford | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/28 | 283 | 2 | 3 |
| Alex Tanney | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 9 | 11 | 111 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.21