Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.078
- 44.2%Success rate40.4%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.32CPOE-3.12
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.36
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 8/22 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 23 | 131 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 17/30 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.36