Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.078
- 44.2%Success rate40.4%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.32CPOE-3.12
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.36
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:20 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:33 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 0:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 14:03 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 9:06 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIA | Q2 0:59 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q2 0:26 | 3 | 11 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–0 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q3 14:32 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 13–0 |
| NYG | Q3 11:03 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q3 7:51 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–0 |
| NYG | Q3 6:45 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q3 5:16 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| NYG | Q3 1:04 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| MIA | Q4 11:43 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NYG | Q4 9:44 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 13–3 |
| MIA | Q4 4:05 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| NYG | Q4 1:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 8/22 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 23 | 131 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 17/30 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.36